India China Standoff

A commonly held belief (even within India among a section of the population) when discussing possible war between India and China is that India will lose a conventional war. That premise is deeply flawed, and I would like to address it, for both, yourself, and my countrymen. By no means I am calling for a war and firmly believe that an all out military war would be catastrophic for both of our interests.

Okay , let's take a look at things as they currently stand.

Defense

India doesn't need to conquer Beijing. Defense is easier than offense. Meanwhile, India is a natural fortress, especially when approaching from China. Our troops will be well-supplied and decently equipped. They are far more battle-hardened and experienced, especially in mountain warfare. PLA's fuel costs alone would make an actual conventional war very expensive to run for more than a week. Maybe two.

Equipment & Training

One of the biggest reasons our troops often use "outdated" guns (although we're pretty well-equipped now), and the Army dithers so much about procuring new small-arms, is that ANY gun that is used in IA needs to be reliable and fully functional in EVERY imaginable environment. From muddy, sticky, humid, and slimy swamps and forests at sea level, to sandy, grimy, abrasive deserts with blistering heat soaring over 50C... to icy frozen peaks, at insane altitudes, extremely low pressures, and -50C temperatures, with sleet, snow, ice, rocks, etc. Everything, from guns to artillery, from helicopters to bombs, absolutely everything is extensively tested for years, to the point of failure, in all those conditions. As are the soldiers themselves. The PLA does not have such a high bar, neither for their soldiers, nor for their equipment. Our soldiers fight regular insurgency in J&K for nearly 3 decades now and have proven time and again that they can infiltrate enemy borders and inflict casulties at will.

Generals and Officers

Its a known fact that battles are not won by expensive equipments but by generals and officers who lead the men in the battlefield. Indian army has the unique distinction of some of the highest officer to soldier casualty ratios in the world. What it means it that our officers have never shied away from laying down their lives. We have a history of Indian officers who have been trained better than almost any other army in how to outmaneuver an enemy, when actually engaging in battle. It's no coincidence that IA sliced through East-Pakistan and ended up flanking and surrounding the Pakistani Forces who were caught totally unaware. Whereas PLA officers are seen as an arm of Executive who have maintained the brutual regime of PLA in the hopes of building contacts and relationships and do business, and they retire as filthy rich.The Chinese have no such experience or training.

Art of War

Much has been said about the Art of War but everyone else has also read it. A stategy is only good as long as your opponent doesn't about. On the other hand India has a rich history of warfare and defense that is thousands of years old, and we have our own ever-growing list of texts and strategic doctrines that are better-kept secrets than that of Sun-Tzu.China mostly uses the Art of War to guide their diplomatic positioning that is being aggressive and bellicose when they're actually internally weak (trying to fend off any notion that they're wounded or vunerable) This intimidation may work against samller nations but won't when you are facing an experienced, highly motivated, and well-weathered volunteer force.

Motivation

Indian soldiers (who include many Tibetans, Ladakhis, Himanchalis, Uttarakhandis, Gurkhas, Sikkimese, etc) are fighting against a force that is trying to press deeper into their motherland. The Tibetans especially are right at home at (and beyond) the border, because the land that PLA is attacking from, is literally Tibet - their nation that was annexed, and the nation they are defending is their step-mother land that has given them refuge. The PLA soldiers have no such motivation. They are following orders, but they are in a land their country has only held for 60-70 years. They do not care about the local population, nor the culture, nor the religion, nor the language.

2.5 Front war

Another point that is always brought up is that Pakistan would join forces with China to wage a two front war. But in my opinion this leaves China more vulnerable. It will directly threaten China's pet project in the region - CPEC. India can easily set the entire project back 5-10 years minimum as we have Karakoram Highway pass well within range for our missiles, and in a position that is an absolute hell to defend.China's investment into the entire CPEC project is significant, but hardly worth risking an all-out war with a nuclear power.

In the history of warfare, there is ever only one reason a country hides its losses. To save face and keep up morale of their civilians and their military. I am not denigrating loss of human lifechest thumping on casulties but just advocating that their looses are atleast as significant as ours if not more. Conclusion of the story, PLA/China is not so stupid that they'll shoot themselves in the foot for no reason. I reckon both sides will come to an understanding in next couple of weeks and de-escalate.

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